Politics Of Demography
Palash Biswas
Contact: Palash C Biswas, C/O Mrs Arati Roy, Gosto Kanan, Sodepur, Kolkata- 700110, India. Phone: 91-033-25659551
Email: alashbiswaskl@gmail.com">palashbiswaskl@gmail.com
The region that is now West Bengal was a part of a number of empires and kingdoms during the past two millennia. The British East India Company cemented their hold on the region following the Battle of Plassey in 1757, and the city of Kolkata, formerly known as Calcutta, served for many years as the capital of British India. A hotbed of the Indian independence movement through the early 20th century, Bengal was divided in 1947 into two separate entities, West Bengal - a state of India, and East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) belonging to the new nation of Pakistan. It is india's intellectual state.
Following India's independence in 1947, West Bengal's economic and political theatres were dominated for many decades by intellectual Marxism, Naxalite movements and trade unionism. From late 1990s, economic rejuvenation led to a spurt in the state's economic and industrial growth.[1] An agriculture-dependent state, West Bengal occupies only 2.7% of the India's land area, though it supports over 7.8% of Indian population, and is the most densely populated state in India.[1] West Bengal has been ruled by the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front for three decades, making it the world's longest-running democratically-elected communist government. Many notable poets, writers, artists and performers are native to West Bengal.
Demographics
http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:E9SoSpUqv88J:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bengal+Demographic+Politics+of+West+Bengal&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=in
The vast majority of the 80,221,171 people of West Bengal[58] are Bengalis.[59] Bihari minority is scattered throughout the state and communites of Sherpas and ethnic Tibetans can be found in regions bordering Sikkim. People of Nepalese origin called Gurkha, a Martial Race, have a large population in Darjeeling district. West Bengal is also home to indigenous tribal Adivasis such as Santals, Kol and Toto tribe.
The official language is Bengali. Hindi and English are also used commonly. Nepali is spoken primarily in the Darjeeling district. Hinduism is the principal religion — 72.5% of the population are Hindus. Muslims comprise 25%; Sikhism and other religions make up the remainder.[60] West Bengal has a population density of 904 inhabitants per square kilometre (2,341.3/sq mi) making it the most densely populated state in India.[61] The state contributes 7.81% of India's population.[62] The state's 1991–2001 growth rate of 17.84% is lower than the national rate of 21.34%.[58] The gender ratio is 934 females per 1000 males.[58]
The literacy rate is 69.22%.[58] The life expectancy in the state is 63.4 years, marginally lower than the national value of 64.8 years.[63] About 72% of people live in rural areas. The proportion of people living below the poverty line in 1999–2000 was 31.85%.[1] Scheduled Castes and Tribes form 28.6% and 5.8% of the population respectively in rural areas, and 19.9% and 1.5% respectively in urban areas.[1]
The crime rate in the state in 2004 was 82.6 per 100,000, which was half of the national average.[64] This is the fourth-lowest crime rate among the 32 states and union territories of India.[65] However, the state reported the highest rate of Special and Local Laws (SLL) crimes.[66] In reported crimes against women, the state showed a crime rate of 7.1 compared to the national rate of 14.1.[65] West Bengal was the first Indian state to constitute a Human Rights Commission of its own.[65]
Security implications of demographic aggression
Upendra Choudhury
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2003/04/28/stories/2003042800230900.htm
ALTHOUGH the continuous arrival of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants has serious security implications for India, the issue has so far been inadequately understood at best or is considered a "local problem'' at worst.
The former Home Minister, Mr Inderjit Gupta, had stated that there were more than one crore Bangladeshis illegally residing in India. According to Mr R. N. Bhattacharya, Inspector-General of BSF, in charge of South Bengal Frontier, "every 15th resident in West Bengal is a Bangladeshi." Each year about two lakh foreigners enter India illegally and settle down. To these, one should add those who enter with forged travel documents or even with valid ones but do not return to their country. The Bangladeshi immigrants are not only found in Assam and West Bengal but have also moved into various parts of India from Punjab to Bombay, from Nagaland to Orissa.
The long and porous borders give an easy passage to the infiltrators. The West Bengal-Bangladesh border 2217-km has over a hundred known points of infiltration. Another reason for the continuous illegal immigration is the absence of any punitive measures against it. Moreover, the language factor, age-old ties, the presence of a large minority population in the border villages, the nexus between the illegal immigrants and the fundamentalist organisations and, above all, the vote-bank politics of the political parties are all responsible for this permissive attitude.
Are immigrants swarming the North-East a security risk? According to a senior Army officer, who served in the north-eastern area, in seven States Hindus are in minority — Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and the five North-Eastern States. He predicts that if the current trend of Bangladeshi infiltration continues, within 10 years, Assam will become the eighth State where the Hindus will be in minority.
The political implications of this are grave. In the not-too-distant future, the infiltrators may well form the majority in the State Assembly. A study by a Kolkata Institute in 1989 found that the Bangladeshi immigrants were in a position to decisively influence over 52 Assembly constituencies, while in another 100, they could appreciably influence the outcome. This means that in about 50 per cent of the 294 Assembly constituencies of West Bengal, the Bangladeshi immigrants could play an important role.
The infiltrators outnumbering the locals too have serious security implications.
At the height of the Khalistan movement in Punjab, thousands of Hindus were turned out to seek shelter elsewhere in India. More recently, lakhs of Pandits have been driven out of Kashmir and hardly anyone espouses their cause.
Moreover, at the rate at which infiltration continues, there is a distinct danger that, in the near future, the infiltrators would demand a referendum on a merger with Bangladesh or set up another Muslim country speaking Bengali predominantly in the eastern part of India. With Bangladesh in the East and South of West Bengal; and Nepal and Bhutan in the North-West and North; and with China straddling the entire region further North, not to mention Myanmar in the East; this region would pose an extraordinary geo-political challenge to India.
Another security implication is that it has given rise to a number of fundamentalists forces, primarily for defending the interest of Bangladeshi migrants. According to Mr T. V. Rajeshwar, former Governor of West Bengal, organisations such as the Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam, the Muslim Liberation Army and the Muslim Liberation Force have been formed for this purpose.
To him, some of these outfits have even announced their objective of creating an independent Islamic state in Assam. Historian H. K. Borpujari, thinks that these organisations have given the ISI of Pakistan and international fundamentalist forces a solid base to destabilise the country.
Thus, there is no doubt that the Bangladeshi immigrants pose a serious threat to our security. Political parties, in general, and the Centre, in particular, should rise above their electoral interests and take immediate steps on this vital issue to safeguard India's national interest.
(The author teaches India's Foreign Policy and International Politics at the Post-Graduate Department of Political Science, Dyal Singh College, Karnal, Haryana.)
West Bengal turning blind eye to changing religious demographic balance: Advani
KOLKATA, MARCH 26. Accusing the CPI (M)-led Left Front Government of turning `a blind eye' to the `fast-changing' religious demographic balance in the border districts of West Bengal, the BJP president, L.K. Advani, today said such change had affected the communal peace and harmony so also the native culture. ``Such a change has not only harmed communal peace and harmony but also the native culture and social ethos of the areas concerned,'' Mr. Advani said in a letter to Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee.
``We, in the BJP, view this not as a Hindu-Muslim issue, but as an issue that impinges, both in short and long term, on the unity, integrity and security of our nation,'' Mr. Advani said.
The Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha alleged that it was regrettable that such an issue, raised by the State BJP chief, Tathagata Roy, in a letter to the State Home Secretary, was not given importance despite it being `a potent danger'.
He expressed hope that the Chief Minister would treat the issue `with the seriousness it deserves'. Mr. Advani was referring to a letter written by state BJP president to the Home Secretary about the 'change in religious demographic pattern' in West Bengal's border districts. — PTI
Class and the Politics of Participatory Rural Transformation in West Bengal: An Alternative to World Bank Orthodoxy
SUDIPTA BHATTACHARYYA 11Department of Economics and Politics, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731 235, West Bengal, India1Department of Economics and Politics, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731 235, West Bengal, India
Sudipta Bhattacharyya, Reader in Economics, Department of Economics and Politics, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan 731 235, West Bengal, India. e-mail: sudipta.bh@gmail.com
I prepared the draft of this paper during my visit to the Department of Economics and International Development, University of Bath during 2003–4 as a Commonwealth Fellow. I have presented an earlier version of the paper at seminars in a variety of universities and institutions, in the United Kingdom, France and India. They are too numerous to mention here, but the comments received there were most helpful. I am grateful to the following individuals for their observations: Utsa Patnaik, A. K. Bagchi, Madhura Swaminathan, Barbara Harriss-White, Prabhat Patnaik, Geof Wood, John Hudson, Sarah White, Susan Johnson, Peter Davis, Joe Devine, Turan Subasat, Atanu Ghoshray, Hari Lohano, Dibyesh Anand, Indraneel Dasgupta, Raju Das, M. S. Bhat, David Seddon, Rajat Ganguly, Indranil Dutta, Matthew McCartney, Bernard Conte, Ben Rogaly, Daniel J. Rycroft, Jos Mooij, Crispin Bates, Anand P. B., Martin Ricketts, Hugh Goodacre, Manik Bhattacharya and Niloy Ghosh. The editors of this journal, especially T. J. Byres, and the journal's referees, were very helpful. I thank the editors for their detailed editorial help. The usual disclaimer applies.
Keywords : West Bengal, Panchayat Raj, peasant social differentiation, social capital, participatory rural developmentAbstract
Based on a primary field survey and secondary sources of information, this study analyzes the West Bengal experience of participatory rural transformation in relation to the changing class structure in a differentiated rural economy, the rise in class-consciousness among the rural poor and the participation of different classes in the political process of decision-making. Utsa Patnaik's (1987) labour exploitation criterion is used in order to rank rural households in class terms, alongside the standard acreage groupings. This study strongly refutes the neo-liberal (World Bank) idea of social capital and civil society as sources of ‘people's participation’. It is argued that ‘people's participation’ is a meaningless concept, since the ‘people’ as a category includes different classes with conflicting interests. Though subordinate classes in West Bengal have achieved a higher level of class consciousness than in the past, and have resisted extra economic coercion, and while their political participation has risen, their involvement at the grass roots level of administrative decision-making is very weak. Panchayat Raj has so far failed to initiate a second phase of institutional reform in West Bengal, encompassing education, gender justice and above all the co-operative movement. This partial failure is the outcome of short-term electoral benefit being given priority over and so undermining class struggle.
The demography of politics
Author: Sandhya Jain
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: September 21, 2004
When the Muslim votebank frowns, politicians get into a frenzy. Reacting with alacrity to Muslim ire at Census revelations of the community's steep growth rate, the UPA government reverted Commissioner J.K. Banthia to his parent cadre for not consulting the Union Home Ministry before releasing data on religious demography. Congress President Sonia Gandhi jumped into the fray, promising an inquiry into so-called statistical errors, and the message heard loud and clear across the country was that there is be no public space for the legitimate concerns of the Hindu community.
First reports gave the Muslim growth rate as 36 percent in the decade 1991-2001. Later, adjustments factoring in the absence of data from Jammu and Kashmir in the 1991 census and from Assam in 1981, scaled this down to 29.3 percent, a decline of 3.6 percent from 32.9 percent growth in the 1991 census. Questions have legitimately been raised about the original and the "adjusted" figures politically extracted from the Census Commission.
Certainly the "adjusted" figures have a higher comfort value. They show that instead of the decadal growth rate of Muslims increasing by 1.5 per cent in 2001, it actually fell by 3.6 per cent. Yet these figures surely hide the true extent of India's Muslim population, as both Jammu & Kashmir and Assam are States with a high Muslim population. Hence, when the figures for both States are added, we will have to admit having a much higher total Muslim population in the country, and a higher percentage of Muslims to the total population. This reality cannot be evaded.
Hindus have long had a latent fear that the Muslim community will exterminate it from its homeland through demographic aggression in the form of over-breeding and illegal immigration. There is a secret dread, articulated by former Director General of Police, Mr. R.K. Ohri (Long March of Islam, 2004), that Hindus in India will meet the fate of the Christians in Lebanon and parts of the Balkans, where sharp demographic changes over a span of a few decades reduced the majority community to minority status. The warning is not without merit. The population of indigenous religious groups in the country has steadily fallen in percentage terms over the past 110 years, from 1881 to 1991, and this trend has accelerated after Partition. The present controversy over Islamic injunctions against family planning has only added to Hindu discomfort.
The Census 2001 statistics have attracted so much attention partly on account of the security and economic implications of illicit immigration from Bangladesh, and partly because the growth rate of most native religious groups has stagnated or declined. The Muslim community scored poorly on development indices such as literacy and employment, and virtually confined its contribution to the national kitty to demographics. This has understandably frightened the Hindu majority, especially since the Minister of State for Home, Mr. Sriprakash Jaiswal, went so far as to demand a ban on release of population figures of different religious groups. Some politicians even foolishly asked the rationale behind collecting such figures.
Actually, as Dr. J.K. Bajaj of the Centre for Policy Research, Chennai, has pointed out, this is not the first time that the Census has released data on the relative population of different religious groups. Right from the first Census of 1871, data regarding religious demography has been made public and is in fact, the most keenly awaited census data. What is unique about the 2001 figures is that this is the first time since Independence that the Census has tabulated religious demography against socio-cultural factors like literacy, age distribution, employment status, female child ratio, and so on. This has enabled scholars to examine the causes of the changing demographics of different religious communities. As of now, it appears that the Muslim population in India is unlikely to stabilize at normal replacement levels. From 10.43 percent in 1951, Muslims have risen to 13.43 percent in 2001.
It is relevant that even the "adjusted" figures of 29.3 percent put the Muslim rate of growth well above the national average, and also above that for other major communities such as the Hindus (20.3 percent); Christians (22.6 percent) and Sikhs (18.2 percent). It bears mentioning that the Hindu growth rate in the previous decade declined by as much as five percentage points, to 20.3 percent. Hence, the nine percent officially admitted lead enjoyed by the Muslim community has understandably sent alarm bells ringing across the nation.
Since independence, Hindus as a community have been declining in percentage terms. In 1951, Hindus comprised 85 percent of the population. By 1961 itself they had fallen to 83.4 percent; they were 82.7 percent in 1971 and 80.5 percent in 2001. In sharp contrast, the Muslim community stood at 9.7 percent of partitioned India's population in 1951, but rose steadily to 10.7 percent in 1961, 11.2 percent in 1971 and 13.4 percent in 2001. The missing censuses of Jammu & Kashmir (1991) and Assam (1981) hardly detract from this trend.
The situation is especially alarming when we look at particular States. In Kerala, Muslims comprised 17.9 percent of the population in 1961, but were a formidable 24.7 percent by 2001. In Assam, Muslims comprised 25 percent of the population in 1961, but were 30.9 percent in 2001. In West Bengal, Muslims rose from 20 percent in 1961 to 25 percent in 2001. In Maharashtra, they marched from 7.6 percent in 1961 to 10.6 percent in 2001. These increases in percentage are unlikely to be reversed in the coming decade. Conversely, the proportion of Hindus has declined in each state.
Muslims are now the majority or near-majority community in the districts of Assam and West Bengal that border Bangladesh, several key districts in eastern Bihar, western Uttar Pradesh, and northern Kerala, and of course Kashmir. This rapidly changing population profile of Assam, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is a matter of legitimate national concern. Today, with 30.7 million Muslims in a truncated Uttar Pradesh, 20.2 million in West Bengal, 13.7 million in a truncated Bihar and 10.2 million in Maharashtra, India is sitting on a demographic tinderbox.
In the eight decades from 1901 and 1991, Assam witnessed a steep fall in the percentage of native religions, from 84.55 to 68.25 percent, while Muslim population nearly doubled from 15.03 percent to 28.43 percent. Dhubir, Barpeta, Hailakundi and Karimganj are reportedly Muslim majority districts. In West Bengal, Muslims are the majority in Malda and Murshidabad, with West Dinapur and Birbhum slated to follow. In Uttar Pradesh, Rampur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Bareilly are close to becoming Muslim majority districts. In Bihar, Muslims have overwhelmed Kishanganj (65.91 percent), and dramatically increased their numbers and percentage in Araria, Katihar, Sahibaganj, Darbhanga and Pashchimi Champaran.
The census must also be viewed in the context of India's neighbourhood. In 1941, Hindus and Sikhs jointly constituted 19 percent of present-day Pakistan, but fell to one percent by 2001. In 1941, Hindus were 29 percent of present-day Bangladesh, but declined to 18 percent in 1961, 14 percent in 1974, 12 percent in 1981 and 10 percent in 1991. Dhaka's sustained ethnic cleansing of the past few years can only have accelerated this trend. The conclusion is inescapable: the region is being Islamized. This has obvious implications for national identity and security.
Marx, money, vote & madrasas
West Bengal a typical case of soft state
Hari Jaisingh
A number of complexities in today's terrorism-infested world must have been beyond the wildest imagination of Karl Marx, Lenin and, for that matter, even of Mao. Their stress was on class war leading ultimately to the withering away of the state. The state has not withered away, but the Soviet Union as a unified nation has collapsed. The communist ideology could not hold the Soviet Union together because what Marx taught failed to stand the test of human weaknesses and susceptibilities.
Civilisational traits of different races, their religious preferences, prejudices and cravings for riches are part of human complexities which go beyond any set doctrine. Even Stalin's younger daughter Svetlana took to astrology while deciding to marry an Indian Marxist ideologue, Brajesh Singh, elder brother of former External Affairs Minister Dinesh Singh. Their marriage was secretly solemnised in accordance with Hindu rituals.
I am giving the above information to put the Marxist-ruled state of West Bengal's ideological paradoxes in right perspective. West Bengal does not belong to the also-ran category state. It is a class apart from the other states not only for certain ideological continuity of the ruling alliance there but also for political stability which is a unique plus point in itself.
Mr Jyoti Basu was the longest-serving Chief Minister of an Indian state. He bowed out gracefully in favour of Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharya, who was the unanimous choice of the CPM Politburo.
The new Chief Minister has not only established himself but has also shown certain welcome signs of flexibility both in political approach and governance of the state. He is not a rigid person. He is more pragmatic than Mr Basu was. He understands that changing times demand changing responses. I am saying this after a wideranging interaction with a number of thinking persons and leaders in Kolkata last week.
Of course, Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharya cannot have his way in all matters. As a disciplined person, he has to be guided by the party as well as the allies of the CPM in the state. Still, within the given framework, he is a forward-looking person who wishes to make West Bengal an economically vibrant and politically ideal state. But then he is not without numerous problems. Perhaps, the CPM thrives on problems.
The influx of Bangladeshis has added to his woes. What has particularly made things go out of hand is the increasing use of Bangladeshis as votebank investment. For that matter, the demographic profile of West Bengal as well as of the entire north-eastern region, including Assam, is changing alarmingly. The country is paying a heavy price for the actions of our self-seeking, visionless and petty-minded politicians.
What has made all this more disturbing is the activities of ISI agents who are very much part of the groups sneaking into the region. They pose a serious threat to the country's security.
The seriousness of the problem has come to the fore in the wake of the shoot-out incident outside the American Center in Kolkata on January 22. It has given a severe jolt to sensible politicians. They now talk openly of the presence of ISI agents in West Bengal and how the influx of Bangladeshis threatens the state's security and well-being.
Though India as a nation is a soft state, West Bengal's is a typical case of being a soft state because of its ideological hangover. And the elements of this softness flow from a misplaced Marxist ideology coupled with a set concept of secularism, cash-and-carry vote-bank politics and low-level corruption.
"You just pay Rs 200 to Rs 400 and get a ration card which entitles you to vote," a well-informed police officer belonging to the West Bengal cadre told me in Kolkata. This should be enough to understand the serious nature of political drift in the state. Unlike in this part of the country corruption in that state is a low-cost operation. Of course, political parties here are more interested in the infiltrators’ votes than their notes.
I talked to Union Home Minister L.K. Advani about this infiltration. He is well aware of the problem but is very cautious in stating the truth lest he should be accused of being communal. Herein lies the Indian malaise. The question of communalism and secularism has virtually become a matter of political convenience.
A Marxist probably sees no evil in Pakistani or Saudi-funded terrorism foisted in the name of Islam. No wonder, there has been a mushroom growth of madrasas in the state. There are as many as 505 government-recognised madrasas in West Bengal against over 400 which operate freely without due recognition. The madrasa tag has become a political symbol. Because of the high level of illiteracy religious leaders enjoy tremendous clout during elections and hence the political patronage.
After the January 22 shooting incident the West Bengal Chief Minister is, however, a disturbed person. He has already ordered a survey of the madrasas and asked for a database. At a meeting with senior officers of Murshidabad district the other day, Mr Bhattacharya said: "I would like to see the survey findings and database within the next fortnight."
Incidentally, the border district of Murshidabad has the heaviest concentration of madrasas. There are several other districts where madrasas have been set up without permission. Mr Bhattacharya's action was also prompted by the arrest of a madrasa teacher, Habibur Rehman. A Bangladeshi national, he had been teaching Arabic at a madrasa in Lalgola. He is suspected to have links with the ISI.
It is no secret that ISI agents are active in the border districts with the sole aim of alienating Muslims from the mainstream. "This is dangerous. I urge my Muslim bhais not to listen to these divisive forces because this will lead to disaster," the Chief Minister told the CPM's Murshidabad district conference on January 28.
The Chief Minister's order to survey all madrasas has, meanwhile, upset some of the CPM allies. They are so obsessed with their vote bank politics and corrupt practices which go with it that they do not seem to realise the serious implications of infiltration in the state and dubious activities of the ISI.
In tackling the problem of terrorism, there must not be any ideological tilt one way or the other. What is tragic is that a progressive state like West Bengal, known for its secular credentials and progressive land reforms, should become a convenient playground for highly communal politics.
It will be educative to recall some findings and recommendations of the six-member A.R. Kidwai committee which was set up to look into the working of madrasas and suggest remedial steps. (Mr Kidwai is a former Governor of West Bengal)
The committee has already submitted its interim report which is now being scrutinised by the state government. It has not only admitted the mushroom growth of illegal madrasas in the border districts and adjoining areas but has also pointed out how some vested interests are encouraging people from across the border to come to West Bengal.
At many places, village panchayats give shelter to them for their political gains. They are granted ration cards which help them get their names listed as voters. In some cases, the Muslim League, the Jamat-i-Islami and other communal forces are using these migrants for their communal politics.
During last year alone, over 10,000 Bangladeshis crossed over to West Bengal. Of these, roughly 4,000 could be pushed back. But the rest managed to slip into the interiors and mixed themselves with the locals.
Interestingly, the 1991 census reveals that in the past few years the population in nine border districts of the state had gone up by 30 per cent while in other areas the increase has been on an average of 5 to 7 per cent.
It is also no secret that some terrorist outfits backed by the ISI are using Bangladesh as their hideout and spread their activities across the border.
It will be worthwhile to note some of the recommendations of the Kidwai committee report.
One, proper guidelines must be evolved for granting recognition by the Madrasa Board.
Two, the Madrasa Board needs to be reorganised by inducting representatives from various competent bodies and drafting of appropriate curriculum.
Three, corruption and corrupt practices prevailing in madrasa education must be checked.
Four, steps must be taken to guard against the fanning of communalism.
Five, a protective shield has to be provided against criminalisation with a view to rooting out various vested interests of communal nature.
Six, no unauthorised madrasa should be allowed to function, but new rules can be framed to grant permission to more madrasas.
Seven, adequate funds must be earmarked for madrasa education.
West Bengal is indeed faced with a very serious problem which will require shedding of old ideological tilts and mustering of political will to nip the evil of communalism and terrorism in the bud. The Chief Minister understands the range and dimensions of the problem. But he has to act swiftly and firmly in the interest of his state and the nation as a whole.
Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharya is not only a forward-looking Marxist but also a forward-looking nationalist. All that he has to do is to put his nationalist step forward and silence politico-ideological ragas of his partymen and allies. For this he will have to educate and reorient the mindset of his Marxist colleagues and ruling partners.
He must not allow the delicate demographic profile of the state to be disturbed. Secularism is not a blind alley. It is a two-way highway where there must be free flow of ideas and concepts which are to be guided by the nation's interests.
Terrorism has no ideology. Nor can distorted Islamic teachings strengthen the country's secular creed, especially when funding and directions for terrorist activities come from the enemies of the nation.
Gujarat will decide general election date
Arun Nehru
The Gujarat elections have been dominating the media, with estimates and surveys being conducted. Depending on your preferences you can interpret the findings. Given the "wide" safety margins given by most forecasts, it is safe to assume that you will be both right and wrong within the same figures. The betting market is also giving odds, and I must admit that these figures are perhaps a little more accurate of the trends which change on a daily basis. The fight is tough, but the Gujarat chief minister is way ahead in the race, and estimates vary between 80-95 for the BJP and 70-80 for the Congress with 8-12 seats going to Independents. Political estimates indicate that Narendra Modi attracts crowds between 10,000 to 15,000 on an average in the rural areas (this is very good), while other BJP leaders struggle with numbers between 500 to 1,500. Clearly, the campaign strategy has to be based on the personality and performance of the chief minister.
Arun Jaitley will, as usual, run a good campaign, and the tactics of the last ten days will be vital. As things stand, the campaign will hinge around Narendra Modi for the BJP, and Sonia Gandhi and Rahul for the Congress. Large meetings of both parties are well attended, but these numbers can be confusing, as many facilities are offered to the crowds to assemble. Electoral trends are best assessed in the interiors where the responses of the voters are spontaneous and results easier to predict.
We will see a tough fight, but I think the results will be decisive. I don’t think the people of Gujarat will have to depend on individual MLAs and their tantrums for the future. A Congress win in Gujarat will be a political "upset," but if this does take place, the party’s position in the UPA coalition will be stronger than before, and an early election will be on the cards. The BJP will suffer a terrible psychological blow if it loses and this can affect the party worker and public sentiment for the short term. For both sides, the results of the Gujarat election will have a very decisive effect for the future. These results will determine the timing of the next Lok Sabha electi
